Creating a new theory FOR change
Written by Sian Basker and Madeleine Spinks
Any nonprofit organisation worth its salt needs to revisit its purpose and impact from time to time. We are, after all, here for social and/or environmental progress, so defining and measuring the difference we make is really important, otherwise what’s the point?
We encourage many of the organisations we work with to develop their theory of change as a key part of this process. In fact, we’ve just finished working on an updated version of our own, which we’re calling our ‘Theory for Change’ (more on that later).
In this blog we unveil our new, more focused impact story, and share some of the key elements of the process of its creation. If you’re working on your own theory of change, we hope our reflections will help.
Why impact measurement is hard
Anyone who has developed a theory of change knows it's no mean feat to describe the entire rationale of your organisation, all the change you make in the world, in a nutshell. And it takes time to iterate and get it right. We’ve spent the last nine months working on ours, and it’s something we support other organisations to do all the time! In principle the storyline is simple:
These people (those we serve)
Have these challenges (which are surmountable)
So we do these things (our activities/services)
That create this change (immediate outcomes, directly attributable to our efforts)
That lead to this change (medium and long-terms outcomes, we contribute toward)
Which ultimately results in this enduring change (the happy ever after)
But impact measurement is hard because it’s about outcomes. And outcomes are about changes (in attitudes, behaviours, skills and knowledge) achieved by people for themselves. They happen as a consequence of our support so can only be measured after they’ve received our support, (and again, a while after that).
Doing impact measurement right requires existential questioning, deep thinking, an honest look at the existing evidence, an ability to dream and imagine a better future… and a lot of, sometimes tough, discussions and decisions.
Notably it’s something best done collaboratively by everyone in the organisation. For us, this meant our theory of change was shaped by our board, our employees and our past clients. We tested it out on fresh minds too – thank you to the 2023 fellows on the Clore Social Leadership’s experienced leaders programme for the feedback.
Theory FOR Change vs Theory OF Change
We know the term ‘Theory of Change’ is more commonly used. The idea to adopt the alternative ‘Theory for Change’ was inspired by the closing panel discussions at Understanding Society’s ‘Are We Making A Difference?’ Conference on evaluating the impact of population level policies.
For us, ‘for change’ feels more empowered. It’s about being proactive in creating the change you want to see in the world, rather than passively seeing your organisation as a tiny part of what’s already predestined.
Some of the key aspects to our process
Describing the full nine months of soul searching in one blog is difficult to do. But there were some key points in our theory of change journey we can share here.
Starting both at the story’s end and beginning
We started with our staff and board at our annual general meeting in autumn 2022. We were nearing the end of our 2020-2023 strategy period, reflecting on our impact to date, and starting to focus ahead.
We began by looking far into the future, trying to articulate the ultimate impact we seek to achieve. Then we looked at the nonprofit organisations we serve, and the data problems and challenges they experience.
Figure 1 - Data Orchard team and board conjuring the first iteration of our Theory for Change at our AGM, Sept 2022
Problems vs challenges
The most important question we asked ourselves is ‘what are the problems we’re trying to solve?’ We spent weeks thinking and talking about this (what can you expect when you ask a lot of analysts to explain a problem space?) We even created a virtual art exhibition for our team to share their ideas about the data problem space in all its complex, inter-related, detailed and abstracted glory.
Figure 2 - A few of the data problem-space exhibits in our virtual art gallery
And this brings us to another terminology tweak from the traditional theory of change: the difference between problems and challenges. Inspired by our work in 2022-23 with Third Sector Support Wales, we began to question whether ‘challenges’ offered our clients a more positive and ultimately empowering way of thinking about data.
Ultimately though, Data Orchard can’t help organisations overcome ALL of their data challenges. (FYI Our organisational data maturity assessment explores more than 100 challenges relating to data in organisations). Moreover, which challenges can we help those we serve to overcome for themselves?
We used the following criteria to hone down specifically a small number of challenges. They needed to be:
well evidenced
something we could actually influence and do something about
if solved, would have the greatest impact on achieving our goal
The middle of the story, pruning and iterating
The middle of the story: the change we create (both known, assumed, and aspirational) is where things get REALLY interesting.
We started off with WAY TOO MUCH, probably 100 outcomes, that needed to be simplified and honed down. It's a bit like pruning a shrub or tree – deciding which parts are important to keep and which to cut out to help reveal the shape and encourage growth. The refining and pruning went on for months. Sometimes we needed to stand back. Sometimes, knowing EVERY SINGLE WORD COUNTS, we got deep into debates over meanings and definitions. Along the way, we sought feedback from staff and board – including several newly recruited members who brought fresh perspectives and useful questions.
Ta Da…
Finally, in spring this year, a mere nine months and 100s of post-it notes later, we're happy with the final product. We did manage to get it to fit on a single page but it was a bit boring to look at, so instead we decided to tell it like a story and record a video.
We felt our impact was best illustrated in the form of a fruiting tree to suit Data Orchard’s name, but also because it's so symbolic on many levels as our totem*.
The value of the process
For Data Orchard, this is the third time we’ve been through this process. Our first attempt was in 2016-17, at a time when there wasn’t much evidence around nonprofit organisations and their challenges with data. Then we developed one specifically for our data maturity assessment tool to communicate why it's helpful for organisations, and to share what the emerging evidence was showing about the benefits and rewards of organisational data maturity.
Whilst the process of impact measurement is certainly challenging, it’s also richly rewarding. In many ways, the process is as valuable as the output. Some key benefits we’ve gained from this are:
A shared vision
A stronger sense of purpose
A collectively-shaped and well-understood story to tell
A closer sense of ‘team’ – across board and employees (both new and old)
Clarity about our impact and what’s important to measure (short and long-term)
A foundation and focus to build our strategy and planning around
So, what next? Now we’ll be returning to the measures and collecting data to test whether our theory FOR change holds up. Doubtless, our theory will continue to evolve as we test, learn and review. Watch this space!
If you want support measuring impact…
Data Orchard has supported many different kinds of organisations with impact measurement. If you’d like to discuss impact measurement for your organisation, do get in touch here. You can also read some case studies on our website.
Let us know what you think
If you have comments or feedback on our Theory for Change we’d love to hear from you. Get in touch.
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*Totem:
An emblem representing a clan or other hereditary social unit, having the form of an animal or other natural object; the animal or natural object itself; a depiction or representation of this animal or object.
A group or clan which is identified with or by such an object
A sign, symbol, or example; a guiding principle or value.
Source: Oxford English Dictionary